Gold & silver prices

What moves gold and silver prices

General explanations of well-established drivers — not a forecast or advice.

Interest rates and real yields

Gold pays no interest, so it tends to be less attractive when inflation-adjusted bond yields rise, and more attractive when they fall.

The US dollar

International prices are quoted in dollars. A weaker dollar usually makes gold cheaper for other buyers, supporting demand.

Rupee exchange rate

Indian prices are roughly the international price converted into rupees, so a falling rupee raises domestic prices even if world prices are flat.

Import duties and taxes

India imports most of its gold and silver. Customs duty and GST (3% on gold and silver) are added to the landed price in India.

Central-bank buying

Central banks, including the RBI, hold gold as a reserve asset; large purchases add to demand.

Uncertainty and safe-haven demand

Investors often buy gold during financial stress, wars or high inflation, which can lift prices sharply.

Jewellery demand

India and China are the largest jewellery markets; festival and wedding seasons affect local demand.

Silver's industrial use

More than half of silver demand is industrial (electronics, solar panels), so silver also moves with the business cycle and tends to be more volatile than gold.

Dated events in India

Each item is taken from the linked source.

1. 01 Jun 2013

   Gold import duty reached 10% after repeated 2012-2013 hikes

   WGC notes duties were raised repeatedly through a series of 2% hikes between 2012 and 2013 up to 10% (value-based duty replaced the earlier fixed per-10g duty), with the June 2013 level being the reference for later 'lowest since' comparisons.

   Source

2. 01 Jul 2019

   India raised gold import duty by 2.5% (July 2019)

   WGC records a 2.5% hike in July 2019 (to 12.5%), after a prolonged gap since the series of 2% hikes between 2012 and 2013 that took the duty up to 10%.

   Source

3. 01 Jul 2022

   India raised gold import duty from 10.75% to 15% (July 2022)

   World Gold Council's duty-cycle review records a hike from 10.75% to 15% in July 2022, after which unofficial (smuggled) imports rose from ~17t in Q2 2022 to nearly 50t by late 2022.

   Source

4. 23 Jul 2024

   Long-term capital gains on gold revised in Budget 2024-25

   The holding period for long-term capital gains on physical gold was cut from 36 to 24 months and the LTCG rate reduced from 20% with indexation to 12.5% without indexation, effective 23 July 2024; gold ETFs/mutual funds held >12 months also moved to the 12.5% long-term rate.

   Source

5. 24 Jul 2024

   India cut gold & silver import (customs) duty from 15% to 6%

   Union Budget 2024-25 reduced total customs duty on gold from 15% to 6% (basic customs duty 10%→5%, AIDC 5%→1%) and on gold doré from 14.35% to 5.35%; silver cut by the same amount; effective 24 July 2024. World Gold Council describes it as the sharpest reduction on record and the lowest duty since June 2013.

   Source

6. 13 May 2026

   India raised gold import (customs) duty from 6% back to 15%

   The government raised the gold import duty sharply from 6% to 15% (as of 13 May 2026 per WGC Chart 1) — the single largest increase on record — fully reversing the July 2024 cut, as part of measures to curb imports and conserve foreign exchange amid rupee pressure.

   Source